Karamoja Election 2025-2026: What Factors May Potentially Affect The Outcome?

Introduction

Karamoja sub-region has always baffled many Ugandans. The lore and history has always interested many in the government and in opposition. Many wonder why a region that has long lagged behind the country in most human development indicators maintains high levels of support for the leading NRM party. Voting in the 90th percentiles consistently for President Museveni.

This term the sub-region has experienced various tumultuous events, insecurity, the killing of the geologists, famine, army worm invasion and the now infamous ironsheets/goats scandal AKA ‘Mabaatigate’

That being said the region also has had reason to hope. This term of 2021-2026 has seen cause for hope and optimism resurface. A total shift in the government approach to development in Karamoja, the change of Ministers, General Caleb Akandwanaho aka Salim Saleh’s visit in 2023 on instruction from President Museveni and the approval of the 10 year 14 trillion Karamoja Regional Development Plan for the socioeconomic transformation of the region. Link to our articles on this  below

https://karamojatrumpet.wixsite.com/my-site/post/an-interesting-look-at-the-new-10-year-karamoja-regional-development-plan-part-1

https://karamojatrumpet.wixsite.com/my-site/post/part-2-snapshot-of-the-karamoja-regional-development-plan

Several investors have flocked to the region and it is confirmed that at least 4 factories with a combined worth of around USD 1 billion will be set up in coming months and years. This is in addition to the mineral survey report which has come out.

This term has also seen several high level religious leaders investing in evangelism through development in the region such as the Karamoja Peace University, The visit by the Archbishop of the Church of Uganda , the around 70bn Catholic Project Under Catholic Relief Services, Pastor Kayanja Ministries, Phaneroo Ministries International as well as Turkish Muslim organisations. This signals that the transformation of Karamoja is fast becoming a priority in the spiritual, political and economic realms.

That being said in the past 5 years we have noted a troubling trend of political leaders, public servants or their opponents being targetted for assasination. At least 4 LCIIIs have been assasinated by criminal elements and just last week there was an attempted assasination on an MP candidate. As the case is under investigation we cannot comment further or divulge more information.

This article aims to look at the unique historical context of the region as well as the current campaign issues in the Karamoja sub-region that may make or break the 2025-2026 campaign at the National and local levels.

Why is Karamoja an NRM stronghold?

What many analysts don’t understand is that before and after independence, Karamoja, like most of northern Uganda was long considered as a mere attachment to Uganda. Just a region that posed no significant economic value. The Biritsh Colonial Office in London saw Karamoja and Northern Uganda as a waste of money and preferred to prioritise making the Uganda colony more profitable.  The Karimojong provided Chief Awich of the Lamoogi rebellion with rifles and the fighting against British Imperial authority led the British to treat the Karimojong as a hostile people.

We write more about these historic injustices in the ateker cluster and the need for its development in our article linked below

https://karamojatrumpet.wixsite.com/my-site/post/the-role-of-ateker-communities-in-the-independence-struggle-against-colonialism-and-the-way-forward

Where did the “We shall not wait for Karamoja to develop slogan come from?”

When Uganda was negotiating for independence in Lancaster House in the UK, A British Colonial Officer raised the issue of Karamoja. They told the Ugandan Delegation led by President Obote that independence should be delayed until regions like Karamoja are developed by the British to reach levels comparable with the rest of the country.

It is believed but not confirmed that a member of the Ugandan delegation or a member of the delegation, boldly proclaimed the now infamous phrase “we shall not wait for Karamoja to develop”. That phrase for the over 20 years after independence directed government policy. Post colonial governments of President Obote and President Amin did try to include some Karimojong in their cabinets such as the late Joshua Akol (the first Karimojong to go to secondary school at a time when it was illegal under colonial law for Karimojong to study beyond P7), the late William Naburi and the Late Edward Athiyo. President Obote also employed many Karimojong in his Presidential Protection Unit and this paid off for him. When he was fleeing the country to exile, they risked their lives to smuggle him out of Uganda. His driver that day was a Karimojong, the late Ariket and others.

This clearly shows the loyalty a Karimojong may feel to those they veiw as good.

That being said beyond there were some notable investments such as Moroto Hospital, Moroto High School and water tanks. The government under Obote and Amin maintained the Government bursary programs and there were attempts at developing an irrigation scheme for Water security by pumping water from lake Kyoga to Karamoja in the 1970s.

That being said there were massacres such as the Nawoikorot Massacre by President Amin-era troops on Karimojong simply for being naked which must also be highlighted. 

Period of insecurity

After the fall of President Idi Amin’s government in 1979, a large reserve of guns and ammunition which he had hidden in Moroto Barracks were raided by the Karimojong, this was at a time when weapons were flowing into the IGAD region through various conflict zones in Sudan, Ethiopia and the Horn f Africa. Kenya armed the Turkana and Pokot, Ethiopia armed the Southern Tribes and in South Sudan the Anyanya rebels were being armed. This made the entire region a conflict zone. President Obote in his second leadership attempt aka Obote II chose to use the Kenyan Airforce to bomb parts of Karamoja in an attempt to cool the situation. It was called Operation Bonanza and some towns like Matany were left almost decimated. This kind of scortched earth policy was standard practice in Karamoja since the time of the British. Even political and Security leaders would take part in cattle rustling cartels.

NRA 10 Point Program

In the 1980s, one of the worst famines in history struck Karamoja and the entire IGAD region.

The Military Commission of which President Museveni was head commissioned a report on Karamoja and it is believed that it was released just around or before the time that the NRA went to the Bush. As the NRA team led by President Museveni drafted their plan for transforming Uganda it is believed that this report was still in the President’s mind and is one of the reasons why helping solve Karamoja subregion’s issues was listed in the original 10 point program. The promise was that once the NRA came to power it would to decisively solve Karamoja’s ailments .

1980-90s

In a matter of months after taking power from 1986, Karamoja sub-region moved from the periphery of national politics to being a darling of the NRM. Karamoja Development Agency(Karamoja Development Agency) was established. Many Karimojong in Government were promoted, the likes of General Paul Lokech, , General Lakara Nakibus, General Andrew Gutti Hon. Lokeris Teko Peter, Dr Robert Limlim, Major Charles Koryang Lepera, Hon. Pulkol David and others.

There were still challenges as the new government of Fronasa-NRA-M had to fight wars on multiple fronts against multiple groups such as Lakwena, Kony etc in addition to rebuilding the economy from a collapsed state that must be noted. What is interesting is these very Karimojong actively contributed and fought hard to support the government in its fights especially against the Khartoum backed LRA and ADF.

1995-2000s

As the country begun to settle and moderately prosper, and as general elections took place regularly, the Karimojong showed their appreciation by overwhelmingly voting for the President who consistently made visits to the region as opposed to ruling from Kampala. The term “Museveni, No change!” was first coined by the Karimojong in the 2000s, specifically by Hon. David Pulkol an NRM Mobiliser in the Kakuyege Team at the time.

NRM Disarmament 1

From 2001 to 2011 the government launched a large scale disarmament operation in the region over 30,000 guns were peacefully handed over mostly by wives, mothers and daughters of armed men while the remaining total of about 15,000 was collected through forceful means. We have written about disarmament in our previous article linked below

https://karamojatrumpet.wixsite.com/my-site/post/changing-the-lens-why-disarmament-is-not-just-about-the-gun-part-1

While the government approach was a mixed bag of good and bad results, we must acknowledge that several human rights violations were committed by security forces. We must also note that the armed Warriors at that time were also incredibly violent and extensively resorted to roadside ambushes of civilians, killing and wounding of innocents and attacks on military installations.

It must futher be noted that as per the constitution of Uganda, violence remains a strict preserve of the state and only the state or those licensed by the state such as security companies have a legal cover for use of force with clearly defined human rights parameters.

Since the 1980s the Karimojong had been conducting large scale inter clan and inter district raids like the battle that killed hundreds at Moruarewon, where vultures feasted on bodies for many days were very commonplace. Karimojong warriors would also launch raids deep into neighbouring unarmed regions like Sebei, Acholi, Lango and Teso. Where elders, women and children would often be stripped, raped or killed. This caused a bad relationship between Karamoja and her neighbours and security personnel who were from these regions, when deployed from Karamoja would often seek personal revenge under the cover of operations.

This many times resulted in gross misconduct such as stealing recovered or impounded livestock. Torture, illegal detention and summary executions.

2011-2019

There was a period of relative stability in the region as disarmament was winding down. That being said security was still heavily contingent on the large scale forward deployment of forces in Karamoja. From 2011-2019, though there was the silence of the gun the region was still under a quasi-state of emergency.

President Museveni deployed his wife, the First Lady to oversee the final phase of disarmament and usher Karamoja into a new era of peace and development. The First Lady did bring much needed attention to the region for example she was able to lobby for the multi billion development projects such as the Kobebe (Moroto) and Arechek(Napak) Mega Dams and other modest programs such as Karamoja Feeds Karamoja started by the First Lady. That being said, either due to lack of funding capacity or policy shortcomings not much was done to reach the Karimojong warriors at the grassroots many miles away from trading centers. It is this group we mention in our article on the Karachuna Question Link below

https://karamojatrumpet.wixsite.com/my-site/post/karamoja-intel-report-is-it-time-president-museveni-met-directly-with-ngikarachunak-the-youth

This inability to fully take advantage of the peace and the subsequent redeployment of UPDF for Combat missions in Somalia in the fight against Al-Shabab led the Karimojong to again rearm and raids to begin. We have written about this for long and you can find out more about the conflict in the All Posts section.

It is around this time that the opposition at the time FDC, UPC and to an extent NRM-Go Forward begun making inroads into the region. Few notable opposition candidates and independent began contesting and winning in local district  council and sub-county levels. In 2016 almost the entire Amudat District Council was NRM independents. Though NRM still maintained over 90% votes in most areas it was clear that pockets of pressure were beginning to form. 

Current Political Situation (Polling)

Currently In Karamoja there is a silent divide along multiple axes.

The first axis is the divide between the minority elite, educated and working class urbanites/business class on the one hand and the majority  Village (erre), Parish (Ngireria) and Sub-County (Awui/Ngawuyoi) who have had less education opportunities, limited access to credit and who reside in raiding corridors or hard to reach areas.

The second axis of division is between the Districts where the government has placed emphasis or where Most Karimojong Ministers have been coming from since the governments of Obote and Amin. These are Mostly from the Southern Districts of Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and Nabilatuk while the Districts with less access to power and who’s people feel less touched by Government interventions these are mainly in the Northern Districts of Kotido, Kaabong, Karenga and Abim. It must be noted that in the South Amudat is also an outlier causing many of the Pokot people to associate more with Kenya. We shall touch on this later.

The third axis is between the new generation of youth who are growing up in a rapidly changing Information ahe and those who are not. It is common for shepherds nowadays to graze with bluetooth speakers and smartphones. The access to information and political propaganda mainly through whatsapp groups is quickly changing the Karimojong electoral landscape. It is difficult to hide things in the digital age. Sometimes this is good and sometimes bad. Karimojong youth regularly host whatsapp question and answer sessions with leaders who give live feedback. I remember once being in a Political Forum and the issue of Army Worm was raised, the next day the Hon. Woman MP from a Karimojong district raised the issue on the floor of the house.

The fourth Axis is the North-South Divide. Essentially many in the Northern Most districts have a perception that a lot of development has been focused on the Southern Districts of Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and Nabilatuk as they are nearer Kampala while the harder to reach districts such as Kaabong, Karenga, Kotido and Abim are seemingly sidelined. If one travels through Karamoja they can clearly see this divide. Possibly it could be attributed to the bulk of Karimojong appointed to serve in Government hailing from the south since Independence. Even in a South Karimojong District such as Amudat, many Pokot of Uganda feel more closely aligned to Kenya and have feel as though they have less of a stake.

In the Minority communities of Ik, Kadam and Tepeth the situation is even worse. Out of a total of about 200.000 people they have less than 80 Graduates.

NUP(Opposition Outlook)

last year NUP on their countrywide tour season 3 launched forays into Karamoja. Mainly in an exploratory manner to follow up on their soft probe of the NRM support lines in 2021 elections. NUP and opposition have been criticized publicly for not making an effort to establish a presence in Karamoja.

NUP Principle Hon. Kyagulanyi, bypassed southern Karamoja and chose to focus his efforts on turning Abim District in the Northern Karamoja sector. As we discussed earlier Kotido, Kaabong and Abim have seen an increase in support for the NUP. The bulk of NUP leadership and structures in the sub-region comes from the three districts and it is possible they may feild some candidates at various levels in 2025-2026. Last time NUP chose the Moroto Area of (Kampswahili)

Earlier in 2023 a key NUP Mobiliser in Kaabong Mr. Lochoto Ambrose was gunned down under uncertain circumstances. The UPDF line was that he was violating the security curfew hours after returning home from a football game at night while his associates claim it was a politically motivated killing.

What is the NUP Message for Karamoja?

In a short but brief statement on their rally in Abim the National Unity Platform stated that “Abim District and Karamoja region” are “naturally endowed with gold” however they accuse government officials and members of the first family of “forcefully holding a monopoly over it, deliberately impoverishing the people of Karamoja”.

Hon. Kyagulanyi instead of outlining specific points of development or on the manifesto, stated that in the “New Uganda” under NUP “Karamoja’s problems will be fixed and key social infrastructure like standard schools, good roads and hospitals will be established” as the Karimojong reap big from the minerals in the region.

NRM Outlook

Inspite of the NUP inroads into the region, NRM is projected to win comfortably in Karamoja subregion, though possibly by a few percentage points less. While 4-5% maybe seemingly negligible it speaks volumes.

Why so?

The enigma of Karamoja is that the government and donors spend around 300bn annually however this is not properly translating into tangible results on ground.

It is not soo much that the Karimojong are forgotten or betrayed or hated by the government it is more that govt and donor projects in Karamoja have not had a sufficient return on investment as expected.

When we look at the history of government spending in Karamoja we can see that money has in many cases been misappropriated. From dams, disarmament, disaster relief and resettlement packages etc.

Recently in 2022-2023 over 90bn was approved for mega dams across the region however the money quickly vaporized and Karamoja today remains with only two mega dams. I.E Kobebe and Arecheck both of which were started during the First Lady’s time.

In addition many families in Karamoja and the country are greiving. Many Soldiers, Policemen and Women, civilians and communities have lost lives, been injured or lost property as a result of the insecurity and resultant disarmament operations. The current peace in Karamoja has come at a terrible human and financial cost.

NRM-PLU vs NRM-ONC and NRM-Structures

The recent overt and covert manouvreing between various factions of NRM or NRM aligned groups around the country is also chipping away at effectiveness with various factions establishing parallel and sometimes counteractionary structures in Karamoja. In some cases even local political dynamics are at play for example the recent Soroti City by election in which various bigwigs in Teso Sub-region jostled to control the outcome and in some cases counter to the Party line.

Grassroots or regional level battles

The battle for supremacy or “gateway syndrome” as hon. Anite Evelyn once coined, is growing in some Districts in Karamoja with many MPs sponsoring their candidates at various levels and teams forming with the objective of resting control over entire districts.

This squabble amongst elites has further watered down service delivery and subsequently NRM support. For example recently Moroto District was ranked the worst performing district in the country due to a political squabble involving an NRM MP, LC V and all NRM District Council.

NRM Primary Weaknesses

In Karamoja the hardest fight is not for the general election but usually for the NRM flag which almost guarantees victory. This system has led to some joining NRM simply to secure the flag. Some unpopular candidates utilize violence, hired goons, money, intimidation and all out rigging to secure the flag and even in the general elections. Many potential opponents are either intimidated or assasinated and we have seen this in 2021 season in Moroto, Kotido and Napak and are closely monitoring their potential resurgence in 2025-26.

The President’s visit (PDM)

The President’s visit in late 2024 was a welcome relief to the region as his visits often yield action points and are a point of reflection as a region. He visited Napak, Moroto then Kotido to a wonderful event.

The President did not speak about his opponents and instead spoke about policies such as water security alongside highlighting some key priority areas for government intervention. Speaking as he would to a beloved last born the President promised greater support to Karamoja.

Cabinet recently approved 180 billion shillings for the first University in the History of Karamoja which is a milestone however the recent failures in accountability by officials for dams, iron sheets and goats and PDM lead some to wonder if the 180 billion gesture may instead become another white elephant for which the President will be blamed.

Conclusion

For the NRM

No other party has enjoyed the kind of support the NRM has had in Karamoja and it is tempting to relax, however to avoid eroding this a fundamental overhaul of the methods of operation and significant structural changes need to be made to ensure effective service delivery. In order to curtail misuse of resources and maximize efficiency. The NRM has all the capacity to maintain or even get 100% in Karamoja

For the opposition

Social media and proliferation of smartphones have made it easier for opposition narratives and promises to reach the region where before it was impossible. The Opposition in Karamoja should stop talking about removing the NRM and instead focus on researched alternative policies if given a chance at leadership. They should also be willing to cooperate and work with the Government to see the kind of change they would like. The opposition does have the potential to feild candidates and win in some areas however their ability to shift from personal attacks to policy issues at the grassroots may make or break their chances in Karamoja.

For NGOs

Great steps have been taken by donors for example the European Union moving from human rights and governance to wealth creation and socio-economic transformation which should be commended. Even the UN Agencies and USAID are moving from distributing food for disaster relief to actively helping communities grow their own food and eradicate poverty. This is a tremoundous leap forward.